51 / 278
PRYSMIAN GROUP | DIRECTORS’ REPORT
51
REFERENCE SCENARIO
MACROECONOMIC SCENARIO
The main features of the macroeconomic scenario in 2015 were slowing growth in the major emerging
economies (Brazil, China and Russia), partially offset by gradual recovery in Europe's Mediterranean
economies (Italy, France and Spain) which had suffered most during 2014, and stabilisation of growth in the
United States and the United Kingdom.
The world economy reported a modest growth in 2015, during which, despite accounting for about 70% of
global growth, emerging economies displayed a progressive easing in the pace of development, while the
more advanced economies managed a modest recovery.
Growth in the Eurozone remained subdued, although better than in 2014, with the most noticeable progress
being made by Mediterranean countries that benefited from the economic stimulus measures by the
European Central Bank, as well as its long-term quantitative easing programme. The lacklustre European
recovery was affected during the year by growing uncertainties about the political and financial situation in
Greece, culminating in the government crisis and the parliamentary elections called in September.
The emergence of growing signs of economic slowdown in China during the course of 2015 had a severe
impact on the Shanghai stock market, with repercussions for other international financial centres. The
government's actions to stem the crisis, including progressive devaluation of the yuan as well as a number of
packages to stimulate industrial production, were not sufficient to prevent the worst GDP growth of the past
25 years. The steep decline in oil prices, to below USD 40 a barrel at year end, can be primarily attributed to
the ending of the Iranian nuclear crisis and the subsequent resumption of trade relations with this country.
This represents another worrying factor for economic growth and volatility in financial markets.
The major international research institutes progressively downgraded their growth estimates for 2015 over
the course of the year, due to rising concerns about slowing growth in emerging economies and the collapse
in commodity prices. In fact, global GDP grew by +3.1%* year-on-year (compared with +3.4%* and +3.3%*
in 2014 and 2013 respectively), reflecting a sharp slowdown in growth by emerging economies from +4.6%*
in 2014 to 4.0%* in 2015 and modest progress by the more advanced economies, from +1.8%* in 2014 to
1.9%* 2015. The Chinese economy reported a reduction in growth, from +7.3%* in 2014 to 6.9%* in 2015,
despite the expansionary economic measures deployed by the government in recent months. This mainly
reflects the progressive deceleration of output in major industrial sectors like construction and steel, as well
as a steady decline in capital investment. In Brazil, the combination of a number of factors, including the
political stalemate, the collapse in commodity prices and the steep devaluation of the local currency, pushed
the economy into a depression that is expected to continue in 2016.
The United States once again confirmed itself as the driving force of the more developed countries, with its
GDP expanding at a rate of +2.5%*, versus +2.4%* in 2014, despite the strengthening of the dollar against
other major foreign currencies.